中英双语 | 秋平：中国经济长期向好的基本面没有变也不会变

中国经济长期向好的基本面没有变也不会变

The Fundamentals Underpinning China’s Long-Term Economic Growth Have Not Changed and Will Not Change

秋平

Qiu Ping

　　中国经济潜力足、韧性强、回旋空间大、政策工具多的基本特点没有变，长期向好的基本面没有变也不会变。

　　The basic features of China’s economy—its abundant potential, robust resilience, ample room for maneuver, and a wide array of policy tools—remain unaltered, and the fundamentals underpinning China’s long-term economic growth have not changed, nor will they.

　　进入新时代，在新中国成立以来特别是改革开放以来创造的经济快速发展奇迹的基础上，中国国内生产总值由2012年的54万亿元跃升到2022年的120.5万亿元，翻了一番多；人均国内生产总值从6300美元上升到1.27万美元，稳居上中等收入国家行列。

　　In the current era, we have continued to build on the miracle of rapid economic growth following the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, particularly the advent of reform and opening up in 1978. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) has more than doubled, soaring from 54 trillion yuan in 2012 to 120.5 trillion yuan in 2022. Per capita GDP has climbed from US$6,300 to US$12,700, placing China in the ranks of upper-middle-income nations.

　　增速上，无论是2013—2022年年均6%以上的增速，还是抗疫三年年均4.5%的增速，都大大高于同期世界平均水平，在全球主要经济体中位于前列。

　　Turning to the growth rate, between 2013 and 2022, China posted an average annual growth of over 6% and even maintained an average annual growth of 4.5% during the three years of Covid-19. In both cases, it significantly surpassed the global averages for the same periods, placing it at the forefront of the world’s major economies.

　　2023年是三年新冠疫情防控转段后经济恢复发展的一年，在世界经济持续低迷的情况下，中国经济总体回升向好，全年国内生产总值超过126万亿元，经济增长5.2%，贡献了全球1/3的增长，依然是世界经济增长的最大引擎。

　　The year 2023 marked the first year of economic recovery and development for China after three years of Covid-19 response. In spite of persistently sluggish global economic growth, China’s economy achieved overall recovery and improvement. GDP in 2023 surpassed 126 trillion yuan, with economic growth reaching 5.2%. With China contributing one-third of the world’s economic growth, it remains the greatest driver of global economic development.

　　进一步说，中国经济的“好”，不仅表现在量上，更表现在质上。

　　To be more specific, the good in China’s economy is evident not only in quantitative measures but, more significantly, in qualitative aspects.

　　比如在经济结构上，高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业增加值的比重不断提高，从2012年的9.4%提高到2022年的15.5%。

　　Consider the economic structure. The added value of high-tech manufacturing as a share of the total added value of large industrial enterprises has been rising steadily, climbing from 9.4% in 2012 to 15.5% in 2022.

　　在创新能力上，《2023年全球创新指数》报告显示，中国排名位居第12位，是前30名中唯一的中等收入经济体，已进入创新型国家行列。

　　In the Global Innovation Index 2023, China ranked 12th in innovation capacity, making it the only middle-income economy in the top 30 and placing it among the world’s most innovative nations.

　　在协调发展上，中部、西部地区生产总值占全国的比重由2012年的21.3%、19.6%提高到了2022年的22.1%、21.4%，城乡居民收入差距持续缩小。

　　In terms of coordinated development, the contribution of the central and western regions to China’s GDP has increased from 21.3% and 19.6% in 2012 to 22.1% and 21.4% in 2022, respectively. Moreover, the income gap between urban and rural residents has continued to narrow.

　　在绿色发展上，10年间中国以年均3%的能源消费增速支撑了超过6%的经济增长，是全球能耗强度降低最快的国家之一。

　　With respect to green development, China has maintained an economic growth rate of over 6% for the past decade while limiting the average annual increase in energy consumption to just 3%. This has enabled it to achieve one of the fastest reductions in energy consumption intensity worldwide.

　　在开放发展上，中国已成为140多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴，货物进出口总额连续多年居世界第一，吸引外资和对外投资均居世界前列。

　　In terms of open development, China has become a major trading partner for over 140 countries and regions. It has led the world in the total volume of imports and exports for several consecutive years, and its levels of inbound and outbound foreign investment rank among the highest in the world.

　　在共享发展上，2012—2023年，城乡居民人均可支配收入从1.65万元增至3.92万元，与经济增长基本同步。

　　With regard to shared development, between 2012 and 2023, the per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents rose from 16,500 yuan to 39,200 yuan, essentially increasing in step with economic growth.

　　可以说，当前中国高质量发展阶段的特征愈益明显，高质量发展的动力愈益强劲，高质量发展的步伐愈益稳健。

　　It is fair to say that the characteristics of this stage of high-quality development are becoming clear for all to see. The drivers of high-quality development are growing more robust, and high-quality development is now advancing at a more consistent pace.

　　在中国经济发展的历史性成就面前，所谓“中国经济见顶论”、“中国经济崩溃论”等唱衰中国经济的论调毫无事实依据，只能是不攻自破。

　　In the face of such historic economic achievements, theories talking down the Chinese economy, such as “peak China” and “China collapse,” are groundless and easily debunked.

　　中文编辑：郝遥

　　英文编辑：李晓琼

　　审校：张娴 衣小伟

　　监制：于波 李振通